Decision summary
Three-year strong steady uptrend signals had higher 24-month finished-positive rate and lower loss risk than the all-stock baseline. Use as thesis monitoring and staged-entry evidence.
- Future return potential: signal median 22.9% versus all-stock baseline 20.8% and EW broad index 35.1%.
- Correction/drawdown risk: signal loss >20% probability 13.6% versus all-stock baseline 18.9% and EW broad index 11.2%.
- Entry timing risk: measured by 10th percentile return -27.5% and median max drawdown -9.2%.
- Use: classify entry condition, thesis condition, and current position before acting. Do not use price history alone as a Buy/Sell label.
Baseline comparison and distribution
| Group | Median return | 25th pct | 75th pct | 10th pct downside | Finished positive | Loss >20% | Loss >30% | Loss >50% | Median max drawdown | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3y strong steady signal | 22.9% | -2.0% | 51.3% | -27.5% | 73.7% | 13.6% | 8.7% | 2.6% | -9.2% | 1,594 |
| All eligible stocks | 20.8% | -10.4% | 55.9% | -38.9% | 67.5% | 18.9% | 13.9% | 6.3% | -11.8% | 4,736 |
| EW broad index | 35.1% | 10.4% | 47.8% | -36.3% | 86.3% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 0.0% | -12.6% | 4,735 |
| Signal excess vs all stocks | 2.1% | -5.3% | -5.2% | -3.7% | 2.6% | |||||
| Signal excess vs EW index | -12.2% | 2.4% | -1.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% |
Current ticker mapping
| Ticker | Current signal | Historical median return | Correction/loss risk | Entry condition | Suggested action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABBV | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| ACV | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| AEP | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| AET | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| AFL | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| AIZ | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| ALL | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| ALXN | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| AM | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| AMZN | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| APH | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| ATGE | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| ATI | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| AXP | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| BAC | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| BK | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| BNY | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| CAH | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| CASY | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| CAT | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| CMI | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| CMX | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| COF | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| CRH | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
| CSCO | 3y strong steady uptrend | 22.9% | 13.6% | Favorable | Hold or stage entries while thesis condition is intact |
Action framework
| Situation | Suggested action |
|---|---|
| No position | If entry condition is Favorable or Acceptable with staged entry and thesis condition is Intact, open a partial position. If entry condition is Elevated or Extreme risk, wait for consolidation or use smaller initial size. |
| Partial position | Hold existing exposure and reserve cash for better entry unless thesis condition becomes Deteriorating. |
| Full position | Do not add based only on the historical signal. Add only if entry condition improves and portfolio concentration allows it. |
| Overweight position | Use the signal for sizing discipline. Consider rebalancing if entry risk is Elevated or Extreme. |
| Thesis deteriorating | Reduce or avoid regardless of the historical price pattern. |
What this signal does not mean
A steady trend does not mean valuation risk is absent or that fundamentals cannot deteriorate. It is a historical base-rate input.
What changed since the previous report
Added all-stock and EW broad-index baselines, excess return/risk, distribution percentiles, current ticker mapping, and position-state actions.
Dataset disclosure
Universe: 953 stocks in the local database, adjusted monthly prices from 2001-01-31 to 2026-06-26. Historical constituents are not reconstructed. Survivorship-bias risk exists. No liquidity/minimum-price filter beyond positive adjusted price. Signal cooldown: 36 months. Baseline: all eligible stock observations and EW broad index because SPY is unavailable.
Methodology note
The site is a historical base-rate and risk-management system. Historical results are not guaranteed predictions.