Hold Through Earnings
Decision rule
Entry condition: Favorable. Use this as a base-rate input for staged entry and holding discipline.
Suggested actions
| Situation |
Suggested action |
| No position |
Starter or staged entry is supported if thesis condition is Intact and valuation/liquidity filters pass. |
| Partial position |
Hold and add in stages while thesis remains Intact. |
| Full position |
Hold; new adds require portfolio room. |
| Overweight position |
Do not add solely because the base rate is favorable. |
| Thesis deteriorating |
Reduce or avoid regardless of historical base rate. |
Signal
Fundamental update + EPS growth >20%
Historical evidence
Median 24-month return 25.9% versus baseline 25.2%. Finished positive 72.8%. Loss greater than 20% 14.3%. Median max drawdown -10.7%. Sample size 2,744.
Correct interpretation
Fundamental update + EPS growth >20% produced a 25.9% median 24-month return versus 25.2% for all eligible observations. The loss greater than 20% rate was 14.3% versus 13.7% baseline.
What this does not mean
The signal does not guarantee a positive return and should not override deteriorating fundamentals or portfolio concentration limits.
Invalidation checks
Set thesis condition to Deteriorating when revenue, EPS, cash flow, margins, balance sheet, competitive position, or market theme weakens materially.
Confidence and limitations
Historical data, current database universe, survivorship-bias risk, monthly measurement, and no guarantee of future results.
Insider Buying: Not Measurable Yet
Decision rule
No signal available. The current database has no insider transaction history.
Suggested actions
| Situation |
Suggested action |
| Any position |
Ignore insider-buying as a signal on this site until the data source is added. |
| Data requirement |
Add Form 4/equivalent transaction history before calculating base rates. |
Signal
Insider buying effectiveness.
Historical evidence
No insider-buying rows or columns were found in the local historical service.
Correct interpretation
Do not infer insider-buying effectiveness from this dataset.
What this does not mean
This does not mean insider buying is ineffective; it means the current database cannot measure it.
Invalidation checks
Re-run the study only after insider transaction data is available.
Confidence and limitations
Coverage check only; no return statistics calculated.
Free Cash Flow Growth vs Future Returns
Decision rule
Entry condition: Favorable. Use this as a base-rate input for staged entry and holding discipline.
Suggested actions
| Situation |
Suggested action |
| No position |
Starter or staged entry is supported if thesis condition is Intact and valuation/liquidity filters pass. |
| Partial position |
Hold and add in stages while thesis remains Intact. |
| Full position |
Hold; new adds require portfolio room. |
| Overweight position |
Do not add solely because the base rate is favorable. |
| Thesis deteriorating |
Reduce or avoid regardless of historical base rate. |
Signal
FCF growth >30%
Historical evidence
Median 24-month return 31.8% versus baseline 25.2%. Finished positive 76.2%. Loss greater than 20% 12.5%. Median max drawdown -8.9%. Sample size 1,013.
Correct interpretation
FCF growth >30% produced a 31.8% median 24-month return versus 25.2% for all eligible observations. The loss greater than 20% rate was 12.5% versus 13.7% baseline.
What this does not mean
The signal does not guarantee a positive return and should not override deteriorating fundamentals or portfolio concentration limits.
Invalidation checks
Set thesis condition to Deteriorating when revenue, EPS, cash flow, margins, balance sheet, competitive position, or market theme weakens materially.
Confidence and limitations
Historical data, current database universe, survivorship-bias risk, monthly measurement, and no guarantee of future results.
Valuation vs Future Returns
Decision rule
Entry condition: Favorable. Use this as a base-rate input for staged entry and holding discipline.
Suggested actions
| Situation |
Suggested action |
| No position |
Starter or staged entry is supported if thesis condition is Intact and valuation/liquidity filters pass. |
| Partial position |
Hold and add in stages while thesis remains Intact. |
| Full position |
Hold; new adds require portfolio room. |
| Overweight position |
Do not add solely because the base rate is favorable. |
| Thesis deteriorating |
Reduce or avoid regardless of historical base rate. |
Signal
Forward PE <15
Historical evidence
Median 24-month return 27.5% versus baseline 25.2%. Finished positive 77.0%. Loss greater than 20% 11.2%. Median max drawdown -9.3%. Sample size 2,424.
Correct interpretation
Forward PE <15 produced a 27.5% median 24-month return versus 25.2% for all eligible observations. The loss greater than 20% rate was 11.2% versus 13.7% baseline.
What this does not mean
The signal does not guarantee a positive return and should not override deteriorating fundamentals or portfolio concentration limits.
Invalidation checks
Set thesis condition to Deteriorating when revenue, EPS, cash flow, margins, balance sheet, competitive position, or market theme weakens materially.
Confidence and limitations
Historical data, current database universe, survivorship-bias risk, monthly measurement, and no guarantee of future results.
Strong Momentum + Strong Fundamentals
Decision rule
Entry condition: Favorable. Use this as a base-rate input for staged entry and holding discipline.
Suggested actions
| Situation |
Suggested action |
| No position |
Starter or staged entry is supported if thesis condition is Intact and valuation/liquidity filters pass. |
| Partial position |
Hold and add in stages while thesis remains Intact. |
| Full position |
Hold; new adds require portfolio room. |
| Overweight position |
Do not add solely because the base rate is favorable. |
| Thesis deteriorating |
Reduce or avoid regardless of historical base rate. |
Signal
Momentum + revenue growth >15%
Historical evidence
Median 24-month return 27.9% versus baseline 25.2%. Finished positive 74.4%. Loss greater than 20% 13.0%. Median max drawdown -10.2%. Sample size 874.
Correct interpretation
Momentum + revenue growth >15% produced a 27.9% median 24-month return versus 25.2% for all eligible observations. The loss greater than 20% rate was 13.0% versus 13.7% baseline.
What this does not mean
The signal does not guarantee a positive return and should not override deteriorating fundamentals or portfolio concentration limits.
Invalidation checks
Set thesis condition to Deteriorating when revenue, EPS, cash flow, margins, balance sheet, competitive position, or market theme weakens materially.
Confidence and limitations
Historical data, current database universe, survivorship-bias risk, monthly measurement, and no guarantee of future results.
Large Corrections: When Should You Buy
Decision rule
Entry condition: Favorable. Use this as a base-rate input for position sizing and trimming discipline.
Suggested actions
| Situation |
Suggested action |
| No position |
Do not open full size from the signal alone; wait for stabilization or use a starter only if thesis is Intact. |
| Partial position |
Hold only if thesis is Intact; reserve cash because downside history is elevated. |
| Full position |
Do not add from price history alone. |
| Overweight position |
Consider rebalancing when entry condition is Elevated risk. |
| Thesis deteriorating |
Reduce or avoid regardless of historical base rate. |
Signal
50%+ below high
Historical evidence
Median 24-month return 25.9% versus baseline 25.2%. Finished positive 74.3%. Loss greater than 20% 12.9%. Median max drawdown -9.9%. Sample size 3,092.
Correct interpretation
50%+ below high produced a 25.9% median 24-month return versus 25.2% for all eligible observations. The loss greater than 20% rate was 12.9% versus 13.7% baseline.
What this does not mean
The signal does not guarantee a positive return and should not override deteriorating fundamentals or portfolio concentration limits.
Invalidation checks
Set thesis condition to Deteriorating when revenue, EPS, cash flow, margins, balance sheet, competitive position, or market theme weakens materially.
Confidence and limitations
Historical data, current database universe, survivorship-bias risk, monthly measurement, and no guarantee of future results.
Earnings Revisions vs Returns
Decision rule
Entry condition: Favorable. Use this as a base-rate input for staged entry and holding discipline.
Suggested actions
| Situation |
Suggested action |
| No position |
Starter or staged entry is supported if thesis condition is Intact and valuation/liquidity filters pass. |
| Partial position |
Hold and add in stages while thesis remains Intact. |
| Full position |
Hold; new adds require portfolio room. |
| Overweight position |
Do not add solely because the base rate is favorable. |
| Thesis deteriorating |
Reduce or avoid regardless of historical base rate. |
Signal
Forward EPS up >20% in 6m
Historical evidence
Median 24-month return 25.8% versus baseline 25.2%. Finished positive 75.1%. Loss greater than 20% 10.5%. Median max drawdown -8.5%. Sample size 1,375.
Correct interpretation
Forward EPS up >20% in 6m produced a 25.8% median 24-month return versus 25.2% for all eligible observations. The loss greater than 20% rate was 10.5% versus 13.7% baseline.
What this does not mean
The signal does not guarantee a positive return and should not override deteriorating fundamentals or portfolio concentration limits.
Invalidation checks
Set thesis condition to Deteriorating when revenue, EPS, cash flow, margins, balance sheet, competitive position, or market theme weakens materially.
Confidence and limitations
Historical data, current database universe, survivorship-bias risk, monthly measurement, and no guarantee of future results.
Revenue Growth vs Future Returns
Decision rule
Entry condition: Favorable. Use this as a base-rate input for staged entry and holding discipline.
Suggested actions
| Situation |
Suggested action |
| No position |
Starter or staged entry is supported if thesis condition is Intact and valuation/liquidity filters pass. |
| Partial position |
Hold and add in stages while thesis remains Intact. |
| Full position |
Hold; new adds require portfolio room. |
| Overweight position |
Do not add solely because the base rate is favorable. |
| Thesis deteriorating |
Reduce or avoid regardless of historical base rate. |
Signal
Revenue growth >30%
Historical evidence
Median 24-month return 27.2% versus baseline 25.2%. Finished positive 75.0%. Loss greater than 20% 11.3%. Median max drawdown -9.8%. Sample size 780.
Correct interpretation
Revenue growth >30% produced a 27.2% median 24-month return versus 25.2% for all eligible observations. The loss greater than 20% rate was 11.3% versus 13.7% baseline.
What this does not mean
The signal does not guarantee a positive return and should not override deteriorating fundamentals or portfolio concentration limits.
Invalidation checks
Set thesis condition to Deteriorating when revenue, EPS, cash flow, margins, balance sheet, competitive position, or market theme weakens materially.
Confidence and limitations
Historical data, current database universe, survivorship-bias risk, monthly measurement, and no guarantee of future results.
What Happens After Huge Earnings Gaps
Decision rule
Entry condition: Favorable. Use this as a base-rate input for position sizing and trimming discipline.
Suggested actions
| Situation |
Suggested action |
| No position |
Do not open full size from the signal alone; wait for stabilization or use a starter only if thesis is Intact. |
| Partial position |
Hold only if thesis is Intact; reserve cash because downside history is elevated. |
| Full position |
Do not add from price history alone. |
| Overweight position |
Consider rebalancing when entry condition is Elevated risk. |
| Thesis deteriorating |
Reduce or avoid regardless of historical base rate. |
Signal
Monthly jump >20%
Historical evidence
Median 24-month return 35.8% versus baseline 25.2%. Finished positive 73.3%. Loss greater than 20% 16.4%. Median max drawdown -15.4%. Sample size 898.
Correct interpretation
Monthly jump >20% produced a 35.8% median 24-month return versus 25.2% for all eligible observations. The loss greater than 20% rate was 16.4% versus 13.7% baseline.
What this does not mean
The signal does not guarantee a positive return and should not override deteriorating fundamentals or portfolio concentration limits.
Invalidation checks
Set thesis condition to Deteriorating when revenue, EPS, cash flow, margins, balance sheet, competitive position, or market theme weakens materially.
Confidence and limitations
Historical data, current database universe, survivorship-bias risk, monthly measurement, and no guarantee of future results.
Do New All-Time Highs Outperform
Decision rule
Entry condition: Favorable. Use this as a base-rate input for staged entry and holding discipline.
Suggested actions
| Situation |
Suggested action |
| No position |
Starter or staged entry is supported if thesis condition is Intact and valuation/liquidity filters pass. |
| Partial position |
Hold and add in stages while thesis remains Intact. |
| Full position |
Hold; new adds require portfolio room. |
| Overweight position |
Do not add solely because the base rate is favorable. |
| Thesis deteriorating |
Reduce or avoid regardless of historical base rate. |
Signal
New all-time high
Historical evidence
Median 24-month return 25.3% versus baseline 25.2%. Finished positive 76.0%. Loss greater than 20% 11.8%. Median max drawdown -7.7%. Sample size 2,032.
Correct interpretation
New all-time high produced a 25.3% median 24-month return versus 25.2% for all eligible observations. The loss greater than 20% rate was 11.8% versus 13.7% baseline.
What this does not mean
The signal does not guarantee a positive return and should not override deteriorating fundamentals or portfolio concentration limits.
Invalidation checks
Set thesis condition to Deteriorating when revenue, EPS, cash flow, margins, balance sheet, competitive position, or market theme weakens materially.
Confidence and limitations
Historical data, current database universe, survivorship-bias risk, monthly measurement, and no guarantee of future results.
Mag 7 Dips: Staged Entry, Not Automatic Dip Buying
Decision rule
Entry condition: Acceptable with staged entry for 10-20% dips; Elevated risk for 20-30% dips. Use dip depth to size entries, not to call a bottom.
Suggested actions
| Situation |
Suggested action |
| No position, 10-20% dip |
Open only a starter position if thesis is Intact. Keep cash for additional stages. |
| No position, 20-30% dip |
Use smaller initial size or wait for stabilization; price history alone does not confirm the bottom. |
| Partial position |
Hold if thesis is Intact. Add in stages only after the entry condition improves or the thesis strengthens. |
| Full position |
Do not add simply because the stock is down from the high. |
| Overweight position |
Consider rebalancing instead of buying the dip, especially if the thesis is Uncertain. |
| Thesis deteriorating |
Reduce or avoid regardless of dip depth. |
Signal
Mag 7 stock is 10-30% below its 52-week high.
Historical evidence
12-month median return was +26.0% versus +28.2% for all Mag 7 observations. Finished positive: 77.6%. Loss greater than 20%: 10.5% versus 10.0% baseline. Median max drawdown: -9.9%.
Correct interpretation
The dip group still had positive median forward returns, but it did not beat the normal Mag 7 baseline. The use is disciplined staged entry when thesis is Intact, not automatic dip buying.
What this does not mean
A Mag 7 dip does not mean the stock is automatically cheap or that the decline is finished. In this study, the dip signal had positive returns but no clear excess return versus the Mag 7 baseline.
Invalidation checks
Set thesis condition to Deteriorating if platform growth, margins, capex efficiency, competitive position, regulatory risk, or the AI/advertising/cloud/EV theme weakens materially.
Confidence and limitations
Sample size 344. The study uses today’s Mag 7 list across available history, not historical constituents. Historical base rates do not guarantee future results.
Steady Growth: Hold and Stage Entries
Decision rule
Entry condition: Acceptable with staged entry when thesis is Intact. Use this signal mainly for holding and staged accumulation.
Suggested actions
| Situation |
Suggested action |
| No position |
A starter position is acceptable if thesis condition is Intact. Use staged entry rather than full-size entry, especially if valuation is extended. |
| Partial position |
Hold and add only on pullbacks, bases, or valuation improvement while thesis remains Intact. |
| Full position |
Continue holding if thesis is Intact. New adds should require portfolio room and acceptable valuation. |
| Overweight position |
Do not add because of the signal alone. Rebalance if position size exceeds the portfolio plan. |
| Thesis deteriorating |
Reduce or avoid regardless of the steady historical price pattern. |
Signal
Stock has a three-year strong steady uptrend.
Historical evidence
24-month median return was +22.9% versus +20.8% for all eligible stock observations. Finished positive: 73.7%. Loss greater than 20%: 13.6% versus 18.9% baseline. Median max drawdown: -9.2%.
Correct interpretation
The signal supports thesis persistence and lower drawdown risk versus the all-stock baseline. It is not a valuation check and does not remove fundamental risk.
What this does not mean
A steady uptrend does not mean the stock is always a good buy at any price. The signal is useful for hold discipline and staged entry, not automatic buying.
Invalidation checks
Set thesis condition to Deteriorating if growth slows, margins compress, guidance weakens, leverage rises, or the market theme that supported the uptrend breaks.
Confidence and limitations
Sample size 1,594. Current database universe is not reconstructed historical constituents, so survivorship-bias risk exists. Historical base rates do not guarantee future results.
Fast Run-Ups: Entry Timing and Position Size
Decision rule
Entry condition: Elevated risk. Use this signal for entry timing and position sizing, not as a standalone sell rule.
Suggested actions
| Situation |
Suggested action |
| No position |
Do not open a full position after the rapid rise. Wait for consolidation/pullback, or open only 20-25% of intended size if thesis condition is Intact. |
| Partial position |
Hold the existing stake if thesis is Intact. Do not average up aggressively; reserve most planned cash for a pullback or base. |
| Full position |
Hold if thesis is Intact. Do not add solely because momentum is strong. |
| Overweight position |
Consider trimming back to target weight because the historical median max drawdown was -25.4%. |
| Thesis deteriorating |
Reduce or avoid regardless of the historical return base rate. |
Signal
Stock is up 100%+ in 1-3 months.
Historical evidence
12-month median return was +43.2% versus +12.2% for all eligible stock observations. Finished positive: 77.1%. Loss greater than 20%: 14.8% versus 14.5% baseline. Median max drawdown: -25.4%.
Correct interpretation
The historical upside was strong, but the path often included large drawdowns. The actionable use is to avoid full-size chasing after a fast run-up.
What this does not mean
A high drawdown risk does not mean the 12-month return is usually negative. In this study, the signal had strong median forward return but poor entry timing risk.
Invalidation checks
Set thesis condition to Deteriorating if revenue growth, margins, guidance, balance sheet, competitive position, or the market theme weakens materially.
Confidence and limitations
Sample size 708. Current database universe is not reconstructed historical constituents, so survivorship-bias risk exists. Historical base rates do not guarantee future results.