Decision summary
Question: Do New All-Time Highs Outperform?
New all-time high produced a 25.3% median 24-month return versus 25.2% for all eligible observations. The loss greater than 20% rate was 11.8% versus 13.7% baseline.
- Future return potential: New all-time high median 25.3% versus All eligible observations 25.2%; excess 0.1%.
- Correction/drawdown risk: loss greater than 20% 11.8% versus baseline 13.7%; excess -1.9%. Median max drawdown -7.7%.
- Entry timing risk: entry condition Favorable based on loss risk and forward drawdown.
- Use: buying/holding/trimming decisions require entry condition, thesis condition, and current position. No simple Buy/Sell label is inferred from price history alone.
Baseline comparison
| Group | Median return | 25th pct | 75th pct | 10th pct downside | Finished positive | Loss >20% | Loss >30% | Loss >50% | Median max drawdown | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New all-time high | 25.3% | 1.3% | 52.7% | -24.1% | 76.0% | 11.8% | 7.8% | 2.4% | -7.7% | 2,032 |
| All eligible observations | 25.2% | -2.0% | 55.1% | -27.5% | 73.5% | 13.7% | 9.0% | 3.4% | -10.4% | 4,650 |
| EW broad index | 28.3% | 13.9% | 51.5% | -0.9% | 85.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 0.0% | -9.6% | 4,641 |
| Signal excess vs baseline | 0.1% | -1.9% | -1.2% | -1.0% | 2.7% |
Distribution by bucket
| Group | Median return | 25th pct | 75th pct | 10th pct downside | Finished positive | Loss >20% | Loss >30% | Loss >50% | Median max drawdown | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New all-time high | 25.2% | 0.7% | 51.9% | -23.0% | 75.6% | 11.2% | 7.3% | 2.4% | -8.1% | 10,664 |
| 0-10% below high | 25.1% | 1.1% | 50.3% | -22.4% | 75.9% | 11.1% | 6.9% | 2.5% | -7.2% | 14,286 |
| 10-25% below high | 24.2% | -2.3% | 54.8% | -27.3% | 73.0% | 13.2% | 8.8% | 3.1% | -10.5% | 12,431 |
| 25%+ below high | 27.6% | -5.5% | 70.2% | -32.0% | 71.1% | 15.8% | 10.8% | 4.2% | -14.1% | 16,208 |
Current ticker mapping
| Ticker | Current signal | Historical median return | Loss >20% | Entry condition | Suggested action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABBV | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| AEE | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| AEP | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| ALL | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| AMAT | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| AMD | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| APH | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| BAC | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| CAT | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| CB | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| CDNS | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| CVS | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| DAL | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| DRI | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| FTNT | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| GE | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| H | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| INTC | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| JNJ | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| JPM | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| KLAC | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| KO | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| LIN | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| LLY | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| LRCX | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| MAR | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| MO | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| MPC | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| MRVL | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| MS | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| MU | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| PANW | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| SO | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| SPG | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| STX | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| TER | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| TRV | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| UAL | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| URI | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
| VLO | New all-time high | 25.3% | 11.8% | Acceptable with staged entry | Starter/add only if thesis is Intact and portfolio has room |
Suggested actions
| Situation | Suggested action |
|---|---|
| No position | Starter or staged entry is supported if thesis condition is Intact and valuation/liquidity filters pass. |
| Partial position | Hold and add in stages while thesis remains Intact. |
| Full position | Hold; new adds require portfolio room. |
| Overweight position | Do not add solely because the base rate is favorable. |
| Thesis deteriorating | Reduce or avoid regardless of historical base rate. |
What this signal does not mean
This signal does not create a simple Buy/Sell label. It is a historical base-rate input for entry sizing, holding discipline, and thesis monitoring.
Dataset disclosure
Universe: local database stocks with adjusted monthly prices from 2001-01-31 to 2026-06-26. Historical S&P 500 snapshot membership exists, but the studies use the available local stock universe rather than fully reconstructed historical constituents. Filters: adjusted price at least $5, trailing 3-month average daily dollar volume at least $1 million, market cap at least $300 million when available. Survivorship-bias risk remains.
Methodology
Observations use monthly adjusted prices when available, 24-month forward returns, forward maximum drawdown from the observation price, and a 12-month cooldown to reduce overlapping signals. Baseline uses all eligible observations that pass the same price/data availability filters. EW broad-market index is used because SPY price history is not available in the local service.
Historical patterns do not guarantee future results.