Decision summary
Question: Hold Through Earnings? This is a proxy because the local service does not provide exact earnings announcement timestamps/opening gaps.
Fundamental update + EPS growth >20% produced a 25.9% median 24-month return versus 25.2% for all eligible observations. The loss greater than 20% rate was 14.3% versus 13.7% baseline.
- Future return potential: Fundamental update + EPS growth >20% median 25.9% versus All eligible observations 25.2%; excess 0.7%.
- Correction/drawdown risk: loss greater than 20% 14.3% versus baseline 13.7%; excess 0.6%. Median max drawdown -10.7%.
- Entry timing risk: entry condition Favorable based on loss risk and forward drawdown.
- Use: buying/holding/trimming decisions require entry condition, thesis condition, and current position. No simple Buy/Sell label is inferred from price history alone.
Baseline comparison
| Group | Median return | 25th pct | 75th pct | 10th pct downside | Finished positive | Loss >20% | Loss >30% | Loss >50% | Median max drawdown | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamental update + EPS growth >20% | 25.9% | -3.2% | 58.7% | -30.5% | 72.8% | 14.3% | 10.1% | 4.3% | -10.7% | 2,744 |
| All eligible observations | 25.2% | -2.0% | 55.1% | -27.5% | 73.5% | 13.7% | 9.0% | 3.4% | -10.4% | 4,650 |
| EW broad index | 28.3% | 13.9% | 51.5% | -0.9% | 85.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 0.0% | -9.6% | 4,641 |
| Signal excess vs baseline | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | -0.3% |
Distribution by bucket
| Group | Median return | 25th pct | 75th pct | 10th pct downside | Finished positive | Loss >20% | Loss >30% | Loss >50% | Median max drawdown | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamental update + EPS growth >20% | 27.1% | 1.6% | 57.9% | -23.6% | 76.2% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 2.3% | -10.4% | 4,677 |
| Update + EPS growth 0-20% | 23.6% | -7.7% | 56.5% | -34.7% | 69.5% | 17.4% | 12.0% | 5.0% | -11.8% | 5,149 |
| Update + EPS decline | 25.9% | -0.4% | 56.9% | -24.3% | 74.7% | 12.3% | 7.7% | 2.3% | -9.2% | 4,770 |
| No fundamental update | 25.5% | -1.4% | 56.1% | -26.2% | 73.8% | 12.8% | 8.4% | 3.1% | -9.6% | 38,993 |
Current ticker mapping
| Ticker | Current signal | Historical median return | Loss >20% | Entry condition | Suggested action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | No current signal | 25.9% | 14.3% | n/a | No signal-based action |
Suggested actions
| Situation | Suggested action |
|---|---|
| No position | Starter or staged entry is supported if thesis condition is Intact and valuation/liquidity filters pass. |
| Partial position | Hold and add in stages while thesis remains Intact. |
| Full position | Hold; new adds require portfolio room. |
| Overweight position | Do not add solely because the base rate is favorable. |
| Thesis deteriorating | Reduce or avoid regardless of historical base rate. |
What this signal does not mean
This signal does not create a simple Buy/Sell label. It is a historical base-rate input for entry sizing, holding discipline, and thesis monitoring.
Dataset disclosure
Universe: local database stocks with adjusted monthly prices from 2001-01-31 to 2026-06-26. Historical S&P 500 snapshot membership exists, but the studies use the available local stock universe rather than fully reconstructed historical constituents. Filters: adjusted price at least $5, trailing 3-month average daily dollar volume at least $1 million, market cap at least $300 million when available. Survivorship-bias risk remains.
Methodology
Observations use monthly adjusted prices when available, 24-month forward returns, forward maximum drawdown from the observation price, and a 12-month cooldown to reduce overlapping signals. Baseline uses all eligible observations that pass the same price/data availability filters. EW broad-market index is used because SPY price history is not available in the local service.
Historical patterns do not guarantee future results.