Decision summary
Question: Earnings Revisions vs Returns This is a proxy because the local service does not provide exact earnings announcement timestamps/opening gaps.
Forward EPS up >20% in 6m produced a 25.8% median 24-month return versus 25.2% for all eligible observations. The loss greater than 20% rate was 10.5% versus 13.7% baseline.
- Future return potential: Forward EPS up >20% in 6m median 25.8% versus All eligible observations 25.2%; excess 0.6%.
- Correction/drawdown risk: loss greater than 20% 10.5% versus baseline 13.7%; excess -3.2%. Median max drawdown -8.5%.
- Entry timing risk: entry condition Favorable based on loss risk and forward drawdown.
- Use: buying/holding/trimming decisions require entry condition, thesis condition, and current position. No simple Buy/Sell label is inferred from price history alone.
Baseline comparison
| Group | Median return | 25th pct | 75th pct | 10th pct downside | Finished positive | Loss >20% | Loss >30% | Loss >50% | Median max drawdown | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward EPS up >20% in 6m | 25.8% | 0.1% | 54.1% | -20.7% | 75.1% | 10.5% | 6.4% | 1.8% | -8.5% | 1,375 |
| All eligible observations | 25.2% | -2.0% | 55.1% | -27.5% | 73.5% | 13.7% | 9.0% | 3.4% | -10.4% | 4,650 |
| EW broad index | 28.3% | 13.9% | 51.5% | -0.9% | 85.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 0.0% | -9.6% | 4,641 |
| Signal excess vs baseline | 0.6% | -3.2% | -2.6% | -1.5% | 1.9% |
Distribution by bucket
| Group | Median return | 25th pct | 75th pct | 10th pct downside | Finished positive | Loss >20% | Loss >30% | Loss >50% | Median max drawdown | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward EPS up >20% in 6m | 28.2% | 1.3% | 58.0% | -22.7% | 76.1% | 11.1% | 7.2% | 2.1% | -8.9% | 9,150 |
| Forward EPS up 5-20% | 30.6% | 6.8% | 56.8% | -17.1% | 81.1% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 1.4% | -6.5% | 4,734 |
| Forward EPS flat | 29.3% | 5.4% | 54.3% | -19.6% | 79.1% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 1.7% | -6.7% | 4,403 |
| Forward EPS down >5% | 30.5% | 4.3% | 61.9% | -19.3% | 78.4% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 2.0% | -8.5% | 14,659 |
Current ticker mapping
| Ticker | Current signal | Historical median return | Loss >20% | Entry condition | Suggested action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABBV | Forward EPS up 194.5% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| ADI | Forward EPS up 50.8% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| ALL | Forward EPS up 127.7% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| AMAT | Forward EPS up 42.7% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| AMD | Forward EPS up 84.5% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| AON | Forward EPS up 124.9% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| APA | Forward EPS up 167.4% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| BBY | Forward EPS up 277.5% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| BEN | Forward EPS up 162.9% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| CB | Forward EPS up 64.4% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| CEG | Forward EPS up 66.3% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| CF | Forward EPS up 51.3% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| CVS | Forward EPS up 3289.9% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| D | Forward EPS up 22.5% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| DDOG | Forward EPS up 73.8% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| DG | Forward EPS up 66.0% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| ETSY | Forward EPS up 345.7% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| FCX | Forward EPS up 95.5% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| GOOGL | Forward EPS up 40.9% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| GPS | Forward EPS up 78.0% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| HAL | Forward EPS up 73.8% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| IBM | Forward EPS up 114.3% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| JWN | Forward EPS up 48.0% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| KKR | Forward EPS up 117.4% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| KSS | Forward EPS up 326.5% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| LLY | Forward EPS up 42.8% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| LMT | Forward EPS up 57.4% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| META | Forward EPS up 22.9% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| MPC | Forward EPS up 352.8% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| MSFT | Forward EPS up 33.7% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| MTCH | Forward EPS up 64.7% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| MU | Forward EPS up 30.1% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| NEE | Forward EPS up 97.7% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| NFLX | Forward EPS up 41.1% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| NVDA | Forward EPS up 27.7% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| NXPI | Forward EPS up 90.8% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| O | Forward EPS up 21.8% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| ON | Forward EPS up 773.1% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| ORCL | Forward EPS up 51.4% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
| OXY | Forward EPS up 1226.8% in 6m | 25.8% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry/hold while thesis is Intact |
Suggested actions
| Situation | Suggested action |
|---|---|
| No position | Starter or staged entry is supported if thesis condition is Intact and valuation/liquidity filters pass. |
| Partial position | Hold and add in stages while thesis remains Intact. |
| Full position | Hold; new adds require portfolio room. |
| Overweight position | Do not add solely because the base rate is favorable. |
| Thesis deteriorating | Reduce or avoid regardless of historical base rate. |
What this signal does not mean
This signal does not create a simple Buy/Sell label. It is a historical base-rate input for entry sizing, holding discipline, and thesis monitoring.
Dataset disclosure
Universe: local database stocks with adjusted monthly prices from 2001-01-31 to 2026-06-26. Historical S&P 500 snapshot membership exists, but the studies use the available local stock universe rather than fully reconstructed historical constituents. Filters: adjusted price at least $5, trailing 3-month average daily dollar volume at least $1 million, market cap at least $300 million when available. Survivorship-bias risk remains.
Methodology
Observations use monthly adjusted prices when available, 24-month forward returns, forward maximum drawdown from the observation price, and a 12-month cooldown to reduce overlapping signals. Baseline uses all eligible observations that pass the same price/data availability filters. EW broad-market index is used because SPY price history is not available in the local service.
Historical patterns do not guarantee future results.