Decision summary
Question: Revenue Growth vs Future Returns
Revenue growth >30% produced a 27.2% median 24-month return versus 25.2% for all eligible observations. The loss greater than 20% rate was 11.3% versus 13.7% baseline.
- Future return potential: Revenue growth >30% median 27.2% versus All eligible observations 25.2%; excess 2.0%.
- Correction/drawdown risk: loss greater than 20% 11.3% versus baseline 13.7%; excess -2.4%. Median max drawdown -9.8%.
- Entry timing risk: entry condition Favorable based on loss risk and forward drawdown.
- Use: buying/holding/trimming decisions require entry condition, thesis condition, and current position. No simple Buy/Sell label is inferred from price history alone.
Baseline comparison
| Group | Median return | 25th pct | 75th pct | 10th pct downside | Finished positive | Loss >20% | Loss >30% | Loss >50% | Median max drawdown | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth >30% | 27.2% | 0.0% | 59.8% | -24.0% | 75.0% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 3.1% | -9.8% | 780 |
| All eligible observations | 25.2% | -2.0% | 55.1% | -27.5% | 73.5% | 13.7% | 9.0% | 3.4% | -10.4% | 4,650 |
| EW broad index | 28.3% | 13.9% | 51.5% | -0.9% | 85.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 0.0% | -9.6% | 4,641 |
| Signal excess vs baseline | 2.0% | -2.4% | -1.6% | -0.3% | 0.7% |
Distribution by bucket
| Group | Median return | 25th pct | 75th pct | 10th pct downside | Finished positive | Loss >20% | Loss >30% | Loss >50% | Median max drawdown | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth >30% | 26.8% | -0.4% | 62.0% | -26.5% | 74.7% | 12.6% | 8.4% | 3.1% | -12.6% | 5,137 |
| 15-30% | 31.2% | 0.2% | 67.7% | -26.1% | 75.0% | 12.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | -10.6% | 4,717 |
| 0-15% | 24.9% | -1.8% | 54.8% | -27.1% | 73.4% | 13.2% | 8.9% | 3.3% | -9.4% | 36,117 |
| Negative | 24.6% | -1.7% | 55.2% | -25.1% | 73.6% | 12.9% | 7.7% | 2.4% | -9.6% | 7,569 |
Current ticker mapping
| Ticker | Current signal | Historical median return | Loss >20% | Entry condition | Suggested action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | Revenue growth 35.0% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| ANET | Revenue growth 30.6% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| APH | Revenue growth 54.4% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| BA | Revenue growth 32.7% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| BBY | Revenue growth 39.3% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| BMY | Revenue growth 177.6% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| CMCSA | Revenue growth 139.1% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| EL | Revenue growth 31.8% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| FOX | Revenue growth 59.6% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| GE | Revenue growth 30.6% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| GPS | Revenue growth 185.6% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| HOOD | Revenue growth 41.5% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| HRL | Revenue growth 194.7% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| INTC | Revenue growth 135.5% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| KKR | Revenue growth 34.8% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| LLY | Revenue growth 47.4% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| MRVL | Revenue growth 42.1% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| MU | Revenue growth 85.5% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| NVDA | Revenue growth 65.5% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| PFE | Revenue growth 136.4% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| PLTR | Revenue growth 67.7% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| POOL | Revenue growth 179.1% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| SEDG | Revenue growth 43.1% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| SNPS | Revenue growth 31.9% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| TER | Revenue growth 30.3% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
| WDC | Revenue growth 32.0% | 27.2% | 11.3% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entries if thesis is Intact |
Suggested actions
| Situation | Suggested action |
|---|---|
| No position | Starter or staged entry is supported if thesis condition is Intact and valuation/liquidity filters pass. |
| Partial position | Hold and add in stages while thesis remains Intact. |
| Full position | Hold; new adds require portfolio room. |
| Overweight position | Do not add solely because the base rate is favorable. |
| Thesis deteriorating | Reduce or avoid regardless of historical base rate. |
What this signal does not mean
This signal does not create a simple Buy/Sell label. It is a historical base-rate input for entry sizing, holding discipline, and thesis monitoring.
Dataset disclosure
Universe: local database stocks with adjusted monthly prices from 2001-01-31 to 2026-06-26. Historical S&P 500 snapshot membership exists, but the studies use the available local stock universe rather than fully reconstructed historical constituents. Filters: adjusted price at least $5, trailing 3-month average daily dollar volume at least $1 million, market cap at least $300 million when available. Survivorship-bias risk remains.
Methodology
Observations use monthly adjusted prices when available, 24-month forward returns, forward maximum drawdown from the observation price, and a 12-month cooldown to reduce overlapping signals. Baseline uses all eligible observations that pass the same price/data availability filters. EW broad-market index is used because SPY price history is not available in the local service.
Historical patterns do not guarantee future results.