Decision summary
Mag 7 10-30% dip signals had positive 12-month median return but substantial further-loss risk. Use dip depth to size staged entries.
- Future return potential: signal median 26.0% versus all-stock baseline 28.2% and EW broad index 15.3%.
- Correction/drawdown risk: signal loss >20% probability 10.5% versus all-stock baseline 10.0% and EW broad index 4.3%.
- Entry timing risk: measured by 10th percentile return -21.0% and median max drawdown -9.9%.
- Use: classify entry condition, thesis condition, and current position before acting. Do not use price history alone as a Buy/Sell label.
Baseline comparison and distribution
| Group | Median return | 25th pct | 75th pct | 10th pct downside | Finished positive | Loss >20% | Loss >30% | Loss >50% | Median max drawdown | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mag 7 10-30% dip signal | 26.0% | 2.6% | 50.7% | -21.0% | 77.6% | 10.5% | 5.5% | 1.5% | -9.9% | 344 |
| All eligible stocks | 28.2% | 2.4% | 52.7% | -19.2% | 77.9% | 10.0% | 5.7% | 1.6% | -10.0% | 561 |
| EW broad index | 15.3% | 4.5% | 23.6% | -7.6% | 81.6% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 0.0% | -6.6% | 561 |
| Signal excess vs all stocks | -2.2% | 0.5% | -0.2% | -0.2% | 0.1% | |||||
| Signal excess vs EW index | 10.7% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% | -3.3% |
Current ticker mapping
| Ticker | Current signal | Historical median return | Correction/loss risk | Entry condition | Suggested action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | -10.0% from 52w high | 26.0% | 10.5% | Favorable | No dip signal |
| AMZN | -15.4% from 52w high | 26.0% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry by position state |
| GOOGL | -16.2% from 52w high | 26.0% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry by position state |
| META | -30.1% from 52w high | 26.0% | 10.5% | Extreme risk | Stage entry by position state |
| MSFT | -30.8% from 52w high | 26.0% | 10.5% | Extreme risk | Stage entry by position state |
| NVDA | -18.2% from 52w high | 26.0% | 10.5% | Acceptable with staged entry | Stage entry by position state |
| TSLA | -22.5% from 52w high | 26.0% | 10.5% | Elevated risk | Stage entry by position state |
Action framework
| Situation | Suggested action |
|---|---|
| No position | If entry condition is Favorable or Acceptable with staged entry and thesis condition is Intact, open a partial position. If entry condition is Elevated or Extreme risk, wait for consolidation or use smaller initial size. |
| Partial position | Hold existing exposure and reserve cash for better entry unless thesis condition becomes Deteriorating. |
| Full position | Do not add based only on the historical signal. Add only if entry condition improves and portfolio concentration allows it. |
| Overweight position | Use the signal for sizing discipline. Consider rebalancing if entry risk is Elevated or Extreme. |
| Thesis deteriorating | Reduce or avoid regardless of the historical price pattern. |
What this signal does not mean
A dip signal does not identify a bottom. The signal can show positive median forward return while still allowing another 20% decline.
What changed since the previous report
Added all-Mag7 and EW broad-index baselines, excess return/risk, distribution percentiles, current ticker mapping, and position-state actions.
Dataset disclosure
Universe: AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL, META, TSLA using adjusted daily prices from 2001-01-02 to 2026-06-26. This uses today’s Mag 7 list across available history, not historical constituents. Survivorship-bias risk exists. No liquidity/minimum-price filter beyond positive adjusted price. Signal cooldown: 63 trading days. Baseline: all eligible Mag 7 observations and EW broad index because SPY is unavailable.
Methodology note
The site is a historical base-rate and risk-management system. Historical results are not guaranteed predictions.